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See how every US economic release impacts ES, NQ, RTY, YM, Gold, Silver, USD. Use the Conflict Scorer to pick the events dropping today and see which one wins.
Fed rate 3.50-3.75% (held). "Good news = bad news" active. Core PCE ~2.8% (above target). Markets pricing 1-2 cuts. Powell exits May — Warsh transition adds uncertainty.
| Event | Impact | Freq | ES | NQ | RTY | YM | GC | SI | DXY | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMPLOYMENT & LABOR | ||||||||||
| Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) | HIGH | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | More jobs than expected = strong economy. Stocks rally. Gold drops. Jan 2026: +130K vs 70K forecast. 2025 was massively revised down to avg 15K/mo — benchmark revisions matter. In current "good news = bad news" regime, very strong NFP can turn bearish as it kills cut hopes. |
| Unemployment Rate | HIGH | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bear | Higher unemployment = weaker labor. Stocks drop. Gold rallies. (LOWER # = bullish.) Currently 4.3% (Jan 2026) — Fed sees this as near "natural rate" but watching for deterioration. Rise to 4.5%+ could trigger emergency cuts. |
| Avg Hourly Earnings m/m | HIGH | 1x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Bull | Bull | Bull | Wages up fast = inflation risk. Stocks mixed (good for spending but Fed stays tight). ADP data shows job-stayer pay +4.5% y/y. Hot wages = most sensitive trigger in "good news = bad news" regime — can override soft NFP headline. |
| ADP Employment | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | More private jobs. NFP preview. Smaller reaction than NFP. |
| Initial Jobless Claims | MED | 4-5x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bear | More filings = layoffs rising. Stocks drop. (LOWER # = bullish.) Claims currently near 2-yr lows = "low-hire, low-fire" market. Spike above 250K would be alarming. |
| JOLTS Job Openings | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | More openings = strong demand. Fed watches this. Ratio fell to 0.9 openings per unemployed (Nov 2025) — down from 2.0 in 2022. Still monitored closely. |
| Continuing Claims | MED | 4-5x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bear | More stuck on unemployment. (LOWER = bullish) |
| INFLATION & PRICES | ||||||||||
| CPI m/m | HIGH | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Prices rose MORE than expected. Fed stays hawkish. Stocks dump. Gold rips. Note: tariffs still inflating goods CPI in 2026. Core PCE (Fed's actual target) currently running hotter than CPI. |
| CPI y/y | HIGH | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Annual inflation above forecast. Persistent problem. |
| Core CPI m/m | HIGH | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Core strips food/energy. STICKY underlying inflation. Fed watches this from CPI. Jan 2026 core = 2.5% y/y (lowest since Mar 2021). Goods inflation from tariffs a key sub-component. |
| PPI m/m | MED | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Producer costs up = businesses pass to consumers = future CPI higher. Tariffs show up in PPI FIRST before hitting CPI. Key leading indicator for inflation direction. |
| Core PPI m/m | MED | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Underlying producer inflation rising. |
| PCE Price Index m/m | HIGH | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Fed PREFERRED gauge — NOT CPI. PCE running hotter than CPI (~2.8% vs 2.4%). Above forecast = biggest hawkish trigger. Oct 2025 shutdown disrupted data; latest reliable PCE is Sept 2025. |
| Core PCE m/m | HIGH | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | THE #1 inflation number. Fed 2% target = THIS. Running ~2.8% as of late 2025 — well above CPI reads. Above forecast = panic. Oct 2025 shutdown disrupted PCE data collection. |
| GDP & GROWTH | ||||||||||
| GDP q/q (Advance) | HIGH | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Economy grew faster. Stocks rally. Gold drops. Q3 2025 was 4.3% — very strong. In current regime, hot GDP can be bearish (delays cuts) if inflation also high. |
| GDP q/q (Prelim) | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | 2nd estimate revised up. |
| GDP Price Index | MED | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Inflation in GDP. Growth with price pressure. |
| CONSUMER | ||||||||||
| Retail Sales m/m | HIGH | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Consumers spending more = 70% of GDP. Stocks rally. Higher-income consumers driving most spending growth in current cycle. Tariff-driven price hikes may inflate headline without real volume gains. |
| Core Retail Sales m/m | HIGH | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Excludes autos. Better read on behavior. |
| Consumer Confidence (CB) | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Consumers optimistic = will spend. |
| UoM Sentiment | MED | 2x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Michigan survey higher = optimism. |
| UoM Inflation Expect. | MED | 2x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Consumers expect higher prices. Fed takes this VERY seriously — unanchored expectations = hawkish signal. Long-term expectations currently anchored near levels consistent with 2% but Fed watching closely. |
| Personal Spending m/m | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Spending up = GDP boost. With PCE. |
| Personal Income m/m | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Mix | Mix | Bull | Higher income supports spending. |
| MANUFACTURING & BUSINESS | ||||||||||
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | HIGH | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Above 50=expansion. Above forecast=stronger. Big mover. |
| ISM Services PMI | HIGH | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Services=80% of economy. Above=broad growth. |
| ISM Mfg Prices Paid | MED | 1x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Factory costs rising = inflation. Tariffs directly push this higher. Prices Paid hit 69.7 in mid-2025. Bearish even if PMI strong. |
| S&P Global Mfg PMI | MED | 2x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Same as ISM, less impact. |
| S&P Global Svc PMI | MED | 2x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Services expansion. |
| Durable Goods m/m | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Big-ticket orders up. Volatile (aircraft). |
| Core Durable Goods m/m | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Strips aircraft. Real business spending. |
| Industrial Production | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | More output = growth. Silver reacts. |
| Philly Fed Mfg | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Above 0=expansion. ISM preview. |
| Empire State Mfg | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | NY Fed. First regional report. |
| Chicago PMI | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Day before ISM preview. |
| HOUSING | ||||||||||
| Existing Home Sales | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | More sales = confidence. |
| New Home Sales | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Strong demand = growth. |
| Building Permits | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | More permits = leading indicator. |
| Housing Starts | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Construction = activity + jobs. |
| Pending Home Sales | MED | 1x | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bull | Bear | Bear | Bull | Contracts signed. Future preview. |
| FED & RATES | ||||||||||
| FOMC Rate Decision | HIGH | ~0.7x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Currently 3.50-3.75% (held Jan 2026). CUT=bull stocks+gold. HIKE=bear. HOLD=read statement + dot plot. Markets pricing 1-2 cuts in 2026. Powell's last meeting ~March/May; Warsh takes over — transition adds uncertainty. |
| FOMC Statement | HIGH | ~0.7x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Jan 2026: removed language about labor market downside risks outweighing inflation — now balanced. Hawkish wording changes = bear. Watch for "inflation remains somewhat elevated" language. |
| FOMC Press Conference | HIGH | ~0.7x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Powell Q&A. Can reverse statement reaction. |
| FOMC Minutes | HIGH | ~0.7x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Detailed notes. Look for dissent. |
| Fed Chair Speaks | HIGH | 2-4x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Most influential single voice. Powell through May 2026, then Warsh (if confirmed). Watch for tone shifts during transition — new Chair's first speech will be MASSIVE market mover. |
| Fed Member Speaks | MED | 8-15x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Voting vs non-voting matters. |
| OTHER | ||||||||||
| Crude Oil Inventories | MED | 4-5x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Bull | Mix | Build=oil drops. Energy down. |
| 10-Year Note Auction | MED | 1x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Watch bid-to-cover ratio + tail. Strong demand = lower yields = bull stocks. Weak = yields spike = bear. Foreign central bank participation closely watched. |
| 30-Year Bond Auction | MED | 1x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Long-duration auction. Strong demand = confidence in long-term rates = bull. Tail > 2bps = weak. 30Y most sensitive to inflation expectations. |
| Beige Book | MED | ~0.7x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Anecdotal survey. Tone-based. |
| Trade Balance | MED | 1x | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Mix | Larger deficit = mixed. |
| Michigan Infl. Expect. | MED | 2x | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bear | Bull | Bull | Bull | Consumers expect higher inflation. |
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