Economic Events Cheat Sheet for Futures Traders

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) HIGH

1st Friday | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: More jobs added than expected = economy resilient. Stocks rally (RTY most sensitive). Gold drops as rate cut odds shrink. USD strengthens. In current regime (payrolls running 50-80K/month), even a beat of 120K+ can trigger "good news = bad news" if it prices out cuts.

Below Expectations: Fewer jobs than expected = labor market deteriorating. Stocks sell (recession fears at 4.4% unemployment). Gold rallies on cut hopes + safe haven. USD drops as markets price faster easing.

Unemployment Rate HIGH

1st Friday | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Unemployment rising above 4.4% = labor weakening. Stocks drop (recession alarm). Gold rallies. NOTE: LOWER number = bullish. This shows what happens when rate comes in HIGHER than forecast.

Below Expectations: Unemployment dropping toward 4.2% = labor stabilizing. Stocks rally (soft landing). Gold drops. Fed less urgency to cut.

Avg Hourly Earnings m/m HIGH

1st Friday | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Wages up fast = wage-price spiral risk. Stocks mixed (good for spending BUT hawkish). Gold up as inflation hedge. Fed flags services inflation tied to wages — this matters now.

Below Expectations: Wage growth slowing = inflation easing. Stocks rally if paired with decent NFP. Gold drops. Cut odds rise.

ADP Employment MED

Wed before NFP | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More private jobs. Sets bullish NFP tone. Smaller reaction than actual NFP — preview, not conviction.

Below Expectations: Fewer private jobs. Markets nervous ahead of NFP.

Initial Jobless Claims MED

Every Thursday | 4-5x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More filings = layoffs rising. Stocks drop. Gold rallies. LOWER claims = bullish. Claims near record lows kept recession fears muted — a spike is a major signal.

Below Expectations: Fewer filings = labor holding. Stocks up. Firms still hoarding labor even as hiring slows.

JOLTS Job Openings MED

~6wk lag | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More openings = labor demand solid. Fed watches openings-to-unemployed ratio. Stocks up.

Below Expectations: Fewer openings = employers pulling back. Ratio normalized from pandemic highs — further drops push Fed to cut.

Continuing Claims MED

Every Thursday | 4-5x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More stuck on unemployment = harder to find work. LOWER = bullish. Rising confirms labor deterioration.

Below Expectations: People finding jobs. Stocks up. USD up.

CPI m/m HIGH

~13th | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Prices rose MORE than expected. With Core PCE at 2.8%, upside CPI surprise = hawkish, delays cuts. Stocks dump (NQ worst). Gold rallies. Tariff pass-through makes upside surprises more likely in 2026.

Below Expectations: Prices rose LESS = inflation cooling. Cut odds jump. Stocks rally hard (NQ leads). Gold drops. Most bullish single-day catalyst for equities right now.

CPI y/y HIGH

Same day as m/m | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Annual inflation above forecast = problem not resolved. Running ~2.5-2.7% y/y heading into Feb 2026.

Below Expectations: Annual rate declining faster = disinflation trend intact. Confirms path toward 2%.

Core CPI m/m HIGH

Same day as CPI | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Core strips food/energy. STICKY. Shelter + services inflation holdouts. Latest Core CPI m/m was 0.3%. Above = very hawkish.

Below Expectations: Core cooling = cleanest signal. If 0.1-0.2% consistently, clears path for aggressive cuts. Strongest bullish CPI signal.

PPI m/m MED

~15th | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Producer costs up = future CPI higher. MORE IMPORTANT in 2026: tariffs hit PPI first before flowing to CPI. Hot PPI can signal tariff-driven inflation.

Below Expectations: Producer costs falling despite tariffs = businesses absorbing costs. Dovish signal.

Core PPI m/m MED

Same day as PPI | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Underlying producer inflation rising. Hawkish, especially if tariff-affected categories driving it.

Below Expectations: Producer disinflation at core. Dovish — inflation pipeline cooling.

PCE Price Index m/m HIGH

Last Fri of month | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Fed's PREFERRED gauge. At 2.8% y/y, upside surprise = #1 reason Fed won't cut. Stocks react harder to PCE beats than CPI beats.

Below Expectations: PCE cooling = Fed's own metric says easing. If drops toward 2.4-2.5% y/y, full clearance to cut.

Core PCE m/m HIGH

Same day as PCE | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: THE #1 inflation number. Fed's 2% target = Core PCE. At 2.8%, still 80bps above target. Above forecast = markets panic, cut timeline pushed out.

Below Expectations: Below forecast = strongest green light for cuts. A 0.1% m/m print would send stocks flying. Risk-on explosion.

Import Prices m/m LOW

Mid-month | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: Imports costing more. MORE RELEVANT now: directly measures tariff pass-through. A jump signals tariff costs hitting consumer prices next.

Below Expectations: Import deflation = tariff costs absorbed or offset by USD strength.

GDP q/q (Advance) HIGH

~4wk after Q end | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Economy grew faster. GDP was strong in 2025 (3.8-4.4% Q2-Q3). Stocks rally, gold drops. If TOO strong, "good news = bad news" by delaying cuts.

Below Expectations: Growth weaker/negative = recession fears. Stocks sell hard. Gold rallies. With labor cooling, weak GDP confirms hard landing.

GDP q/q (Prelim) MED

~8wk after Q | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: 2nd estimate revised up. Confirms strength.

Below Expectations: Revised down. Partially priced in.

GDP q/q (Final) LOW

~12wk after Q | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: 3rd estimate. Usually priced in.

Below Expectations: Rarely moves markets.

GDP Price Index MED

With GDP | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Inflation within GDP. Growth with price pressure = bearish.

Below Expectations: Growth with low inflation = goldilocks.

Retail Sales m/m HIGH

~16th | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Consumers spending more = economy strong. Consumer spending = ~70% of GDP. Stocks rally. Strong retail has kept GDP elevated despite weak hiring. High-income wealth effect driving.

Below Expectations: Consumers pulling back = spending cliff. Stocks sell on recession fears. If consumers stop, GDP crumbles. Gold rallies.

Core Retail Sales m/m HIGH

Same day | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Excludes autos. Better read on real behavior.

Below Expectations: Underlying spending weak. More concerning than headline miss.

Consumer Confidence (CB) MED

Last Tue | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Higher = optimistic about jobs/income. Forward-looking.

Below Expectations: Consumers worried = less spending. Falling confidence with rising unemployment is warning.

UoM Sentiment MED

Prelim + Final | 2x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Michigan survey up = optimism. Prelim (mid-month) moves more than final.

Below Expectations: Lower = pessimism. Tariff concerns weighing on sentiment.

UoM Inflation Expect. MED

With Sentiment | 2x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Consumers expect higher prices. Fed takes this VERY seriously — unanchored expectations become self-fulfilling. Tariffs pushing this higher.

Below Expectations: Expectations stable = dovish. Public trusts Fed despite tariff noise.

Personal Spending m/m MED

Last Fri | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Spending up = GDP boost. Released with PCE. Markets look at both together.

Below Expectations: Spending declining. If paired with cool PCE, markets focus on inflation side.

Personal Income m/m MED

Same day | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Higher income supports future spending.

Below Expectations: Incomes falling = future spending at risk.

ISM Manufacturing PMI HIGH

1st biz day | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Above 50 = expansion. First major data each month. Mfg has been in contraction much of 2024-25; a move back above 50 would be very bullish. Watch Prices Paid sub-component for inflation.

Below Expectations: Below forecast/deeper contraction = industrial recession. Manufacturing the weak link — further drops confirm slowdown.

ISM Services PMI HIGH

3rd biz day | 1x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Services = ~80% of US economy. Often MORE important than ISM Mfg.

Below Expectations: Services slowing = most of economy slowing. Below 50 = major recession signal.

ISM Mfg Prices Paid MED

With ISM Mfg | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Factory costs rising = inflation pipeline. Captures tariff costs hitting manufacturers. Bearish even if headline PMI strong.

Below Expectations: Input costs falling = disinflation from production side. Bullish in tariff environment.

S&P Global Mfg PMI MED

Flash+Final | 2x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Flash (mid-month) more impactful. ISM preview.

Below Expectations: Mfg weakness.

S&P Global Svc PMI MED

Flash+Final | 2x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Services expansion.

Below Expectations: Services contraction.

Durable Goods m/m MED

~26th | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Big-ticket orders up. Volatile (aircraft). Watch Core for real signal.

Below Expectations: Orders falling.

Core Durable Goods m/m MED

Same day | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Strips aircraft. Real business investment. Strong core = capex intact.

Below Expectations: Core orders weak = genuine pullback.

Industrial Production MED

Mid-month | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More output = growth. Silver sensitive (industrial metal). AI data center buildout supporting.

Below Expectations: Output declining. Silver drops.

Philly Fed Mfg MED

3rd Thu | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Above 0 = expansion. ISM preview. Has Prices Paid component.

Below Expectations: Below 0 = contraction.

Empire State Mfg MED

~15th | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: NY Fed. First regional report each month. Can be volatile.

Below Expectations: NY contracting.

Chicago PMI MED

Last biz day | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Day before ISM. Trader preview.

Below Expectations: Sets bearish ISM tone.

Capacity Utilization LOW

With Ind Prod | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: Near capacity = growth (inflationary at extremes above 82%).

Below Expectations: Spare capacity.

Factory Orders LOW

~5wk lag | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: Confirms mfg trend. Lagging.

Below Expectations: Weak orders.

Richmond Mfg Index LOW

4th Tue | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: Smaller regional survey.

Below Expectations: Regional weakness.

Existing Home Sales MED

~21st | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More sales = confidence. Modest uptick late 2025 as rates declined.

Below Expectations: Cooling = consumers stretched. Housing weak for several quarters.

New Home Sales MED

~25th | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Strong demand = builder confidence.

Below Expectations: Demand falling = rates biting.

Building Permits MED

~17th | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: More permits = future construction. Leading indicator. Decline stabilized late 2025.

Below Expectations: Builders cautious.

Housing Starts MED

Same day | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Construction starting = activity + jobs.

Below Expectations: Starts declining.

Pending Home Sales MED

Last week | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Contracts signed. Forward-looking.

Below Expectations: Fewer contracts.

Home Price Index y/y LOW

Last Tue | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: Prices up = wealth + inflation risk. Shelter inflation major CPI/PCE component.

Below Expectations: Prices cool = less shelter inflation. Dovish for CPI outlook.

FOMC Rate Decision HIGH

8x/year | ~0.7x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: CUT=stocks up, gold up, USD down. HOLD (as Jan 2026)=read Statement. Currently 3.50-3.75%. Markets pricing ~75bps cuts in 2026, first cut possibly July. Two dissenters wanted cut in Jan.

Below Expectations: Direction depends on decision + forward guidance + dot plot.

FOMC Statement HIGH

With Decision | ~0.7x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: HAWKISH wording = bear. Watch changes: "downside risks to employment rose" was in Jan 2026. Removal = hawkish. Addition of "upside inflation risks" = very hawkish.

Below Expectations: DOVISH wording = bull. Emphasis on employment softening.

FOMC Press Conference HIGH

30min after | ~0.7x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Powell until May, then Warsh. Q&A can reverse Statement reaction. Watch: inflation persistence, employment, tariff impact assessment, cut pace signals.

Below Expectations: Press conference = biggest wild card on FOMC day. Real move often happens here.

FOMC Minutes HIGH

3wk after | ~0.7x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Detailed notes. Dissent details (2 wanted cut Jan), tariff debate, rate path. 2pm ET.

Below Expectations: 3 weeks stale, but dissent details surprise.

Fed Chair Speaks HIGH

Varies | 2-4x/mo | 10 pts

Above Expectations: Most influential voice. Powell until May 2026, Warsh if confirmed. Warsh's first speeches as Chair will be massive movers given political pressure for cuts.

Below Expectations: Hawkish = bear. Dovish = bull.

Fed Member Speaks MED

Multiple/wk | 8-15x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: 2026 voters include hawks (Hammack, Logan). Voting vs non-voting matters.

Below Expectations: Less impact than Chair.

Crude Oil Inventories MED

Every Wed | 4-5x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Build = oil drops. Energy down, transports up. Less inflation pressure.

Below Expectations: Draw = oil up. Energy up but inflation concern.

10-Year Note Auction MED

Monthly | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Watch bid-to-cover ratio + tail. Strong demand = lower yields = bull stocks. Weak = yields spike = bear. Foreign central bank participation closely watched.

Below Expectations: Weak auction = yields spike = bear stocks. Foreign CB reducing Treasury buys is 2026 risk.

30-Year Bond Auction MED

Monthly | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Long-duration auction. Strong demand = confidence in long-term rates = bull. Tail > 2bps = weak. 30Y most sensitive to inflation expectations.

Below Expectations: Weak 30Y auction = long-end selling = bear growth stocks hard. Watch indirect bidders for foreign demand signal.

Beige Book MED

8x/year | ~0.7x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Fed's anecdotal survey. Watch for tariff mentions, hiring sentiment, price pressures. Sets FOMC narrative.

Below Expectations: Hawkish tone = bear. Dovish = bull.

Nonfarm Productivity LOW

Quarterly | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: More output/hour = growth without inflation. AI/tech investment supporting. Goldilocks indicator.

Below Expectations: Falling productivity = inflationary.

Unit Labor Costs LOW

Quarterly | 1x/mo | 2 pts

Above Expectations: Wages outpacing productivity = inflationary.

Below Expectations: Labor costs cooling = disinflation.

Trade Balance MED

~5wk lag | 1x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Larger deficit. Are tariffs reducing deficit? Limited evidence so far. USD may weaken.

Below Expectations: Smaller deficit = tariffs working or exports rising. USD strengthen.

Michigan Infl. Expect. MED

With UoM | 2x/mo | 5 pts

Above Expectations: Consumers expect higher inflation. Fed takes VERY seriously. Tariff fears pushing higher. Bearish stocks.

Below Expectations: Expectations stable despite tariff noise = dovish.

When multiple events release on the same day with conflicting signals, use the Conflict Scorer to determine which instrument has the strongest directional bias.

Formula: Score = (Base Points x Surprise Multiplier) + Fed Focus Bonus + Freshness + Confirmation Bonus

Executive orders, trade announcements, briefings, and remarks pulled from whitehouse.gov and auto-classified by market impact. The interactive version auto-refreshes when you open it.

Why it matters: In 2026, tariff policy and trade announcements from the White House can move futures more than traditional economic releases. Executive orders on energy, trade, and tariffs create sudden supply/demand shifts.

Use the Interactive Cheat Sheet

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